LINK TẢI LUẬN VĂN MIỄN PHÍ CHO AE KET-NOI
Contents
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations................................................................................................................3 List of tables ....................................................................................................................................................4 List of figures ...................................................................................................................................................5 Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................................6 I. Background.................................................................................................................................................16 II. Objectives of the scoping study ................................................................................................................17 III. Methodology, activities and personnel inputs.........................................................................................17 IV. Current state, future scenarios and projections of the economy and climate of Vietnam .....................18
4.1. The demographic features and economic development of Vietnam ....................................................18
4.2. Emissions in Vietnam..............................................................................................................................21
4.3. Climate conditions and climate-related policies in Vietnam .................................................................24
4.3.1 Overview of the past and current climate conditions ...........................................................................24
4.3.2. Climate-related policies: Policies responding to climate change and developing a low carbon society in Vietnam.....................................................................................................................................................25
4.3.3. Supports from development organizations on low carbon and climate-resilient development in Vietnam .........................................................................................................................................................31
4.3.4. Review of low carbon and climate resilient projects and studies in Vietnam .....................................33 4.3.5. Future scenarios of energy consumption and climate change .............................................................34 4.3.5.1. Future scenarios of energy consumption..........................................................................................34 4.3.5.2. Climate change scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050.........................................................................37 V. Appraisal of the scope and methodology proposed for the Study and selection of relevant models for Vietnam .........................................................................................................................................................40
5.1. Scenario modeling for low carbon planning ..........................................................................................40 5.2. Bottom-up models .................................................................................................................................42 5.3. Top-down models...................................................................................................................................52 5.4. Linking Bottom-up with Top-down ........................................................................................................61 5.5. Chosen model for low carbon growth studies in Vietnam.....................................................................62 5.6. Data requirements and data gaps..........................................................................................................63 VI. Detailed scopes for the Input Studies and main Study phases................................................................65
6.1. Input Studies phase:...............................................................................................................................65
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6.1.1. Background of the study .....................................................................................................................65 6.1.2. Objectives of the study........................................................................................................................68 6.1.3. Expected outputs of study ..................................................................................................................68 6.1.4. Budget of study ...................................................................................................................................71 6.1.5. Organization of the study....................................................................................................................71 6.1.6. Time schedule .....................................................................................................................................73 6.2. Main Study phase:..................................................................................................................................75 6.2.1. Objectives of the study........................................................................................................................75 6.2.2. Expected outputs of the study ............................................................................................................76 6.2.3. Budget .................................................................................................................................................76 6.2.4. Organization of the study....................................................................................................................77 6.2.5. Time schedule .....................................................................................................................................78 Conclusion .....................................................................................................................................................79 References .....................................................................................................................................................82 Appendices ....................................................................................................................................................84 Appendix 1: Modelling framework for low carbon growth in Vietnam ........................................................84 Appendix 2 | The EFFECT Model Focuses on Sectors with Significant or Rising GHG Emissions..................87 Appendix 3 | Marginal Abatement Cost Curves*..........................................................................................89 Appendix 4 | The Structure of the Poland DSGE model ...............................................................................90 Appendix 5: Information on energy master plans of Vietnam......................................................................91 Appendix 6: Comparison of ICES and ENVISAGE...........................................................................................98 Appendix 7: Projects and studies on climate change....................................................................................99 Appendix 8: Vietnam CDM projects registered by ED (as of 10/2010) .......................................................110 Appendix 9: The data needs........................................................................................................................113
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List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
CCS Carbon capture and storage
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CIEM Central Institute for Economic Management
DFID Department of International Development of British government GoVN Government of Vietnam
GSO General Statistical Office
IMHEN Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment IPS Institute for Industry Policy & Strategy
KP Kyoto Protocol
MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
MOF Ministry of Finance
MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade
MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
MOST Ministry of Science and Technology
MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment MT Ministry of Transportation
NIAPP National Institute for Agricultural Planning and Projection NTP-RCC National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC United Nations Framework on Climate Change
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List of tables
Table 1: Basic demographic indicators of Vietnam, 2009-2050 (Unit: 1000 people) ....................18
Table 2: GDP growth by sector, 2005-2010 (%).............................................................................20
Table 3: GDP structure by sector, 2000-2009 (%)..........................................................................20
Table 4: Projections for Vietnam GDP and GDP per capita by 2030 .............................................21
Table 5. GHG emissions by sector, in 1994 and 2000 (thousand tons of CO2 e) ...........................22
Table 6: GHG emission estimates by source (thousand tones CO2 e)............................................22
Table 7: Vietnam energy demand for the next decades ..................................................................35
Table 8: Changes in Annual Mean Temperature ((0C) relative to period of 1980 - 1999 Medium emission scenarios (B2)...................................................................................................................38
Table 9: Changes in Annual Rainfall (%) relative to period of 1980 – 1999, Medium emission scenarios (B2)...............................................................................................................................39
Table 10: Sea level rise (cm) relative to period 1980 - 1999 ..........................................................40 Table 11: The data status.................................................................................................................66 Table 12: Training workshops and participants ..............................................................................70 Table 13: The organization involves in the study ...........................................................................72 Table 14: Time schedule of phase 2................................................................................................73 Table 15: The organization involves in the study ...........................................................................77 Table 16: Time schedule of phase 3................................................................................................78 Table 17: Forecast of coal demand up to 2025 ..............................................................................94 Table 18: Petrolimex Forecast of Fuels demand .............................................................................95 Table 19: JICA‘s Forecast of fuels demand to 2025 ......................................................................95 Table 20: List of Vietnamese Nuclear Reactors..............................................................................97
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List of figures
Figure 1: CO2 pollution Intensity from consuming fossil fuels ......................................................23 Figure 2: EFFECT Model Structure................................................................................................45 Figure 3: The logic of the Ex-Act tool ............................................................................................48 Figure 4: Ex-Act structure...............................................................................................................49 Figure 5: Land Use and Land Use Change Modeling Results, Brazil - 2030 ................................50 Figure 6: Bottom-up and Top-down Modeling Tools.....................................................................85 Figure 7: Generation Structure for 2011-2030 ................................................................................93
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Executive Summary
During the last decades, Vietnamese government has already acknowledged the challenges of climate change and harmful impacts of increasing environmental pollutions in the country. Economic growth is no longer a sole development objective in Vietnam but a more sustainable and high-quality growth is targeted in a number of policy documents. Supporting these policies and building capacity in Vietnam to undertake and update analyses of the economics of low carbon development and climate change, Department of International Development (DFID) of British government in association with the Ministry of Investment (MPI) of Vietnam initiated a study namely ―Study into the Economics of Low Carbon, Climate-Resilient Development in Vietnam‖ and Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) was chosen as the main implementing agency. The scope of this overall study comprises three phases: i) Scoping phase; ii) Input studies phase; and iii) Main study.
The objectives of the scoping study are: i) To collate and assess what data and studies exist that will be of use to the study and identify what work will need to be commissioned to fill key gaps; ii) To review the proposed methodology and note where new tools will need to be developed or existing models adopted; iii) To assess what skills exist in Vietnam against those required for the study and identify in-country training needed and/or what international support will need to be brought in for the subsequent two phases (Input Studies and the main Study phases); iv) To identify and consult with key stakeholder groups on the work scope, its phasing and key steps for engagement. During the process of completing these four tasks, the ―business as usual‖ scenarios for Vietnamese economy at least by 2020 (some indicators are actually set out for 2030) will also be formulated.
The main methodology applied is desk study in addition to participating in training courses, organising domestic workshops, consultation meetings and seminars to seek information, knowledge and opinions of studies and experts in relevant fields. The main human resources for conducting the scoping study include six national consultants led by a CIEM team leader. Among these six members, three experienced experts are from the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), two from Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN), Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, and one from Institute for Industry Policy & Strategy (IPS), Ministry of Industry and Trade. In addition, a very experienced international expert was also part of the study team working closely with national consultant team providing basically methodology guidance for the team. The study team also called for and was benefited with technical assistance of a number of the WB, USAID and AUSAID specialists.
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In order to fulfil the objectives of the scoping study, both the current status and future projections of the demographic information, the economy and climate of Vietnam need to be first considered. According to the forecasted results, the population of Vietnam would reach 96 millions in 2020, 103 million in 2030 and about 108.8 million in 2050. The population growth, however, would decline substantially to about 1% in 2020, 0.06% in 2030 and only 0.01% in 2050. In contrast, the urbanisation rate would increase significantly reaching 36% in 2020, 43% in 2030 and almost 60% in 2050. This information, in addition to the other, is very useful for estimating energy consumption of household sector in Vietnam for the investigating periods. Vietnam‘s economy has also undergone relatively high growth during the last decades averaging at 7.2% during 2001- 2010 period. During the last five years, its economic growth, however, has shown a sign of slowing down a little bit with 6.18% and 5.32% for 2008 and 2009 respectively. One of the reasons for this slow down is due to the considerable negative though indirect impacts of the global financial crisis. However, other reasons may come from domestic macroeconomic instabilities themselves. In 2010, the economy somehow recovered and grew up better with an estimated 6.8% growth. Among the major sectors in the economy, industry-construction sector grew up at the fastest speed during 2005-2007 and slowed down during the last few years (2008- 2010). The services sector, on average for 2005-2010 period, is the second fastest in its growth. However, the speeds of these two sectors are almost the same for the current time at around 7.5- 7.7% annually. The economic structure of Vietnam continues to move toward a more industrialised economy. While agriculture-forestry-fishery sector takes up a smaller share in total GDP, industry-construction and service sectors are always increasing. In 2009, each of these sectors accounts for around 40% of the total GDP of Vietnam. The manufacturing sector alone accounts for more than 20% for 2005-2010 period. The expansion of industry-construction sector reflects high speed of industrialisation and urbanisation and this has substantial impacts putting challenges for low carbon development path of the country.
In 2009, Vietnam GDP in current price was USD 96.317 billion (ASEAN Secretariat, 2010) which was just about 36% of that of Thailand and 60% of the Philippines in the same year. In 2010, GDP of Vietnam reached USD 101 billion and is expected to grow at 7.5-8% during the period of 2011-2015 as indicated in the 5-year Socio-economic Development Plan (MPI, 2010). The size of Vietnam economy in 2020 would be more than double that of 2010 and once again double in the next subsequent ten years (2030). The similar increase is expected for GDP per capita indicator. Different sectors may grow at different paces and this has different implications for CO2 emissions of the whole economy. These can also be considered as ―business as usual‖ scenarios for the Vietnamese economy.
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Climate conditions have changed in recent decades in Vietnam. Over the past 50 years (1958 - 2007), average temperature has increased about 0.5 - 0.7°C (NTP, MONRE, 2008). Climate change has made natural disasters, especially typhoons, floods, and droughts more severe. On average for the whole country, the rainfall over the past 50 years (1958 - 2007) decreased by about 2%. There have been more typhoons with higher intensity affecting Viet Nam. Typhoon track has a tendency of moving southward and typhoon season tends to end later. There were more typhoons with abnormal movement. Data from tidal gauges along Vietnam coasts show that sea level rise was at the rate of about 3mm/year during the period of 1993 - 2008 which is comparable with the global tendency. In the past 50 years, sea level at Hon Dau station rose about 20cm (NTP, MONRE, 2008). The climate change scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050 were developed by MONRE based on: (i) Plausibility of global climate change scenarios; (ii) Level of details of climate change scenarios; (iii) Inheritability; (iv) Up-to-date; (v) Local appropriateness; (vi) Completeness of scenarios; and (vii) Possibility of self updating. In medium emission scenario: By the first year (2020, 2030) and between 2050 of the 21st century, annual mean temperatures in Northern climate zones would increase by 0.5 to 1.5°C relative to the baseline period (1980 -1999). The increase in temperatures in Southern climate zones is expected to be less than that of Northern climate zones and is about 0.3 to 1.0°C. By the end of the 21st century, annual mean temperatures would increase about 2.6°C in the North West, 2.5°C in the East West, 2.4°C in the North Delta, 2.8°C in the North Central, 1.9°C in the South Central, 1.6°C in the Central Highlands, and 2.0°C in the South compared to the average of 1980 - 1999. In terms of rainfall and with medium emission scenario: By the first years of 2020 and 2030 and by 2050 of the 21st century, annual mean rainfall in Northern climate zones would increase by 1.4% to 4.1% and about 0.3%-1.7% in Southern climate zones (South Central, Central Highlands and South zones) relative to the baseline period (1980 -1999). The sea level rise by medium scenario for Vietnam is projected at about 30 cm by 2050 and 75 cm by 2100.
The future scenarios of energy consumption coming along with future demand for energy can be seen in the forthcoming National Energy Policy (MOIT, 2011). In this draft policy, the energy demands for major sectors are estimated. In the next 20 years or beyond, energy demand is getting large with substantial changes. For industrial sector, the demand by 2010 is about 13.4 – 14.0 million TOE, by 2020 approximately 25.4 – 28.0 million TOE and by 2050: 110 - 131 mill. TOE (average growth rate of period 2001 - 2020 is 9.2 – 9.7%/year, 2021 - 2050: 5 – 5.3%/year). The transportation sector energy demand is also increasing fast. By the year 2010, it is estimated to be approximately 11.3 - 12 mills. of TOE; by the year of 2020 about 21.5 - 24 mill. of TOE and by the 2050 about 55 - 72 Mill. of TOE. The demand for energy consumption of service sector by the
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year of 2010 is about 2.2 Mill. TOE, in 2020 approximately 3.7 – 4.3 Mil. TOE, in 2050 about 16 - 21 Mill. of TOE. The figures for agricultural sector are forecasted at about 1 Mill. TOE in 2010, about 1.4 – 1.5 Mil.TOE in 2020 and 3.4 – 3.8 Mil. TOE in 2050. Vietnam would turn to be an energy imported country in the near future based on the information from (MOIT, 2011). This is expected to happen from 2013 and the proportion of energy import would reach 25 - 27% in 2020, and about 57 - 62% by 2050 if nuclear power is not taken into account.
Specifically, electricity demand (baseline scenario) is increased at a rate of 14.0%/year for period 2011-2015 and 11.1%/year for 2016-2020 according to Proposed Master Plan on electricity development for period 2011-2020, with its vision up to 2030. The power production is proposed to be 194 billion kWh in 2015, 329 billion kWh in 2020 with the maximum capacity in 2015 of 30,803MW and 2020 of 52,040MW. Up to 2030, power production is estimated at 695 billion kWh with its maximum capacity of 110,215MW. Nuclear power is planned to develop in the next decades with the first Nuclear Power Plant proposed to be run in 2020. Hydro-power would reduce its proportion to 25.7% in 2020 and 15.3% in 2030; oil & gas thermal power would be 19.4% in 2020 and remain 12.7% in 2030; while coal thermal power would increase its ratio up to 46.4% and 56.1% in 2020 and in 2030 respectively. Renewable energy would have its ratio of 4.5% in 2020 and 5% in 2025, due to its potential have been not clarified, especially its wind power has little change in renewable sources structure. After 2025, its proportion is coming down to 3.5%-4%. Nuclear power will be increased, comprising 6.1% in 2025 and 7.8% in 2030 while other energy imported would comprise 2.6% and 4.6% respectively to the year 2020 and 2030.
From the literature review of previous and on-going studies, it can be seen that although the number of studies on low carbon development and climate change impact is large, they analysed only specific aspects of low carbon and climate change impact such as potential for Vietnam to participate in the CDM, benefits on climate change adaptation from small and medium scale hydropower plants, promotion of renewable energy, energy efficiency, rural energy, forest sector development, priority infrastructure investment, demand-side management and energy efficiency, biodiversity etc... It is therefore that a comprehensive study on patterns of economic growth that will be climate resilient and low carbon for the whole economy is still lacking. There has not been any study investigating both adaptation and mitigation processes and inter-sectoral impacts during these to processes for Vietnam. In addition, the data serving for low carbon and climate resilient studies seem to be somehow out-of-date with the latest information came from 2000. Methodologically, there has not been any study combining both top-down and bottom-up approaches in a very comprehensive manner. This proposed study would be a very good evidence-based research providing policy makers with various options of lowering carbon
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intensity and adapting with climate changes and their impacts on the economy while keeping economic growth in the long term.
Appraisal of the scope and methodology proposed for the Study and selection of relevant models for Vietnam
This is one of the major tasks of the scoping study. Low carbon development planning in Vietnam will require a consensus to be reached involving all Ministries and multiple other stakeholders on an achievable long term development trajectory that will allow the country to maintain its growth targets while emitting less greenhouse gases to the atmosphere than could have been expected under previous development plans. Low carbon development planning requires that priorities be determined across sectors; deciding where investments should be made to reduce the future emission of GHGs, and the time frame in which each should best be made. This involves trade- offs and agreements across the entire economy.
Scenario modelling and sharing of data is an important part of this process. Modelling helps understand where a country and each sector – energy, transport, land use, agriculture, forestry and waste management – currently stand, the direction in which they are developing, the impact of this development on the level of GHG emissions, and resources that would be needed for abatement. Scenario modelling typically involves establishing a macroeconomic outlook. This entails forecasting population, GDP, and other macro-economic variables for
inputs. Unlike many standard models, energy plays a key role as an input and is modelled as a complement to capital in the short-run but a substitute to capital in the long run. This reflects the putty/clay specification of production that incorporates vintage capital. The key assumption is that there is greater substitution across inputs in the long run (i.e. with new capital) than in the short run (with old or installed) capital. One consequence of this specification is that countries that have higher growth and higher rates of investment typically have a more flexible economy in the aggregate.
There is a single representative household that consumes goods and services and saves. The savings rate is partially a function of the demographic structure of the region. Savings rise as either the elderly or youth dependency ratios fall. The government sector is relatively passive. Aggregate expenditures are fixed as a share of total GDP and revenues adjust to maintain fiscal balance (through a lump sum tax on households). Investment is savings driven. Aggregate demand by sector is summed across all domestic agents and represents a composite of domestically produced goods and imports—the so-called Armington aggregate. The aggregate Armington good is allocated between domestic production and imports using a two-nested CES specification. The first nest allocates aggregate demand between domestic production and an aggregate import bundle. The second nest decomposes aggregate imports into import by region of origin. This generates a bilateral trade flow matrix. Domestic producers are assumed to supply both domestic and export markets without friction, i.e. the law of one price holds for domestically produced goods irrespective of their final destination. Bilateral trade is associated with three price wedges. The first wedge reflects differences between producer prices and the border (FOB) price, i.e. an export tax or subsidy. The second wedge reflects international trade and transport margins, i.e. the difference between FOB and CIF prices. The third wedge reflects the difference between the CIF price and the end-user price, i.e. import tariffs. All three wedges are fully bilateral.
Model closure is consistent with long-term equilibrium. As stated above, fiscal balance is maintained through lump sum taxes on households under the assumption of fixed public expenditures (relative to GDP). Changes in revenues, for example carbon tax revenues, imply a net decrease in household direct taxes. Investment is savings driven. This assumption implies that changes in investment are likely to be relatively minor since public and foreign savings are fixed and household savings will be relatively stable relative to income. The third closure rule is that the capital account is balanced. Ex ante changes in the trade balance are therefore offset through real exchange rate effects. A positive rise in net transfers, for example through a cap and trade scheme, would tend to lead to a real exchange rate appreciation.
Study into the Economics of Low Carbon, Climate-Resilient Development in Vietnam – Scoping Phase
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Contents
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations................................................................................................................3 List of tables ....................................................................................................................................................4 List of figures ...................................................................................................................................................5 Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................................6 I. Background.................................................................................................................................................16 II. Objectives of the scoping study ................................................................................................................17 III. Methodology, activities and personnel inputs.........................................................................................17 IV. Current state, future scenarios and projections of the economy and climate of Vietnam .....................18
4.1. The demographic features and economic development of Vietnam ....................................................18
4.2. Emissions in Vietnam..............................................................................................................................21
4.3. Climate conditions and climate-related policies in Vietnam .................................................................24
4.3.1 Overview of the past and current climate conditions ...........................................................................24
4.3.2. Climate-related policies: Policies responding to climate change and developing a low carbon society in Vietnam.....................................................................................................................................................25
4.3.3. Supports from development organizations on low carbon and climate-resilient development in Vietnam .........................................................................................................................................................31
4.3.4. Review of low carbon and climate resilient projects and studies in Vietnam .....................................33 4.3.5. Future scenarios of energy consumption and climate change .............................................................34 4.3.5.1. Future scenarios of energy consumption..........................................................................................34 4.3.5.2. Climate change scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050.........................................................................37 V. Appraisal of the scope and methodology proposed for the Study and selection of relevant models for Vietnam .........................................................................................................................................................40
5.1. Scenario modeling for low carbon planning ..........................................................................................40 5.2. Bottom-up models .................................................................................................................................42 5.3. Top-down models...................................................................................................................................52 5.4. Linking Bottom-up with Top-down ........................................................................................................61 5.5. Chosen model for low carbon growth studies in Vietnam.....................................................................62 5.6. Data requirements and data gaps..........................................................................................................63 VI. Detailed scopes for the Input Studies and main Study phases................................................................65
6.1. Input Studies phase:...............................................................................................................................65
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6.1.1. Background of the study .....................................................................................................................65 6.1.2. Objectives of the study........................................................................................................................68 6.1.3. Expected outputs of study ..................................................................................................................68 6.1.4. Budget of study ...................................................................................................................................71 6.1.5. Organization of the study....................................................................................................................71 6.1.6. Time schedule .....................................................................................................................................73 6.2. Main Study phase:..................................................................................................................................75 6.2.1. Objectives of the study........................................................................................................................75 6.2.2. Expected outputs of the study ............................................................................................................76 6.2.3. Budget .................................................................................................................................................76 6.2.4. Organization of the study....................................................................................................................77 6.2.5. Time schedule .....................................................................................................................................78 Conclusion .....................................................................................................................................................79 References .....................................................................................................................................................82 Appendices ....................................................................................................................................................84 Appendix 1: Modelling framework for low carbon growth in Vietnam ........................................................84 Appendix 2 | The EFFECT Model Focuses on Sectors with Significant or Rising GHG Emissions..................87 Appendix 3 | Marginal Abatement Cost Curves*..........................................................................................89 Appendix 4 | The Structure of the Poland DSGE model ...............................................................................90 Appendix 5: Information on energy master plans of Vietnam......................................................................91 Appendix 6: Comparison of ICES and ENVISAGE...........................................................................................98 Appendix 7: Projects and studies on climate change....................................................................................99 Appendix 8: Vietnam CDM projects registered by ED (as of 10/2010) .......................................................110 Appendix 9: The data needs........................................................................................................................113
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List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
CCS Carbon capture and storage
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CIEM Central Institute for Economic Management
DFID Department of International Development of British government GoVN Government of Vietnam
GSO General Statistical Office
IMHEN Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment IPS Institute for Industry Policy & Strategy
KP Kyoto Protocol
MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
MOF Ministry of Finance
MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade
MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
MOST Ministry of Science and Technology
MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment MT Ministry of Transportation
NIAPP National Institute for Agricultural Planning and Projection NTP-RCC National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC United Nations Framework on Climate Change
3
List of tables
Table 1: Basic demographic indicators of Vietnam, 2009-2050 (Unit: 1000 people) ....................18
Table 2: GDP growth by sector, 2005-2010 (%).............................................................................20
Table 3: GDP structure by sector, 2000-2009 (%)..........................................................................20
Table 4: Projections for Vietnam GDP and GDP per capita by 2030 .............................................21
Table 5. GHG emissions by sector, in 1994 and 2000 (thousand tons of CO2 e) ...........................22
Table 6: GHG emission estimates by source (thousand tones CO2 e)............................................22
Table 7: Vietnam energy demand for the next decades ..................................................................35
Table 8: Changes in Annual Mean Temperature ((0C) relative to period of 1980 - 1999 Medium emission scenarios (B2)...................................................................................................................38
Table 9: Changes in Annual Rainfall (%) relative to period of 1980 – 1999, Medium emission scenarios (B2)...............................................................................................................................39
Table 10: Sea level rise (cm) relative to period 1980 - 1999 ..........................................................40 Table 11: The data status.................................................................................................................66 Table 12: Training workshops and participants ..............................................................................70 Table 13: The organization involves in the study ...........................................................................72 Table 14: Time schedule of phase 2................................................................................................73 Table 15: The organization involves in the study ...........................................................................77 Table 16: Time schedule of phase 3................................................................................................78 Table 17: Forecast of coal demand up to 2025 ..............................................................................94 Table 18: Petrolimex Forecast of Fuels demand .............................................................................95 Table 19: JICA‘s Forecast of fuels demand to 2025 ......................................................................95 Table 20: List of Vietnamese Nuclear Reactors..............................................................................97
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List of figures
Figure 1: CO2 pollution Intensity from consuming fossil fuels ......................................................23 Figure 2: EFFECT Model Structure................................................................................................45 Figure 3: The logic of the Ex-Act tool ............................................................................................48 Figure 4: Ex-Act structure...............................................................................................................49 Figure 5: Land Use and Land Use Change Modeling Results, Brazil - 2030 ................................50 Figure 6: Bottom-up and Top-down Modeling Tools.....................................................................85 Figure 7: Generation Structure for 2011-2030 ................................................................................93
5
Executive Summary
During the last decades, Vietnamese government has already acknowledged the challenges of climate change and harmful impacts of increasing environmental pollutions in the country. Economic growth is no longer a sole development objective in Vietnam but a more sustainable and high-quality growth is targeted in a number of policy documents. Supporting these policies and building capacity in Vietnam to undertake and update analyses of the economics of low carbon development and climate change, Department of International Development (DFID) of British government in association with the Ministry of Investment (MPI) of Vietnam initiated a study namely ―Study into the Economics of Low Carbon, Climate-Resilient Development in Vietnam‖ and Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) was chosen as the main implementing agency. The scope of this overall study comprises three phases: i) Scoping phase; ii) Input studies phase; and iii) Main study.
The objectives of the scoping study are: i) To collate and assess what data and studies exist that will be of use to the study and identify what work will need to be commissioned to fill key gaps; ii) To review the proposed methodology and note where new tools will need to be developed or existing models adopted; iii) To assess what skills exist in Vietnam against those required for the study and identify in-country training needed and/or what international support will need to be brought in for the subsequent two phases (Input Studies and the main Study phases); iv) To identify and consult with key stakeholder groups on the work scope, its phasing and key steps for engagement. During the process of completing these four tasks, the ―business as usual‖ scenarios for Vietnamese economy at least by 2020 (some indicators are actually set out for 2030) will also be formulated.
The main methodology applied is desk study in addition to participating in training courses, organising domestic workshops, consultation meetings and seminars to seek information, knowledge and opinions of studies and experts in relevant fields. The main human resources for conducting the scoping study include six national consultants led by a CIEM team leader. Among these six members, three experienced experts are from the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), two from Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN), Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, and one from Institute for Industry Policy & Strategy (IPS), Ministry of Industry and Trade. In addition, a very experienced international expert was also part of the study team working closely with national consultant team providing basically methodology guidance for the team. The study team also called for and was benefited with technical assistance of a number of the WB, USAID and AUSAID specialists.
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In order to fulfil the objectives of the scoping study, both the current status and future projections of the demographic information, the economy and climate of Vietnam need to be first considered. According to the forecasted results, the population of Vietnam would reach 96 millions in 2020, 103 million in 2030 and about 108.8 million in 2050. The population growth, however, would decline substantially to about 1% in 2020, 0.06% in 2030 and only 0.01% in 2050. In contrast, the urbanisation rate would increase significantly reaching 36% in 2020, 43% in 2030 and almost 60% in 2050. This information, in addition to the other, is very useful for estimating energy consumption of household sector in Vietnam for the investigating periods. Vietnam‘s economy has also undergone relatively high growth during the last decades averaging at 7.2% during 2001- 2010 period. During the last five years, its economic growth, however, has shown a sign of slowing down a little bit with 6.18% and 5.32% for 2008 and 2009 respectively. One of the reasons for this slow down is due to the considerable negative though indirect impacts of the global financial crisis. However, other reasons may come from domestic macroeconomic instabilities themselves. In 2010, the economy somehow recovered and grew up better with an estimated 6.8% growth. Among the major sectors in the economy, industry-construction sector grew up at the fastest speed during 2005-2007 and slowed down during the last few years (2008- 2010). The services sector, on average for 2005-2010 period, is the second fastest in its growth. However, the speeds of these two sectors are almost the same for the current time at around 7.5- 7.7% annually. The economic structure of Vietnam continues to move toward a more industrialised economy. While agriculture-forestry-fishery sector takes up a smaller share in total GDP, industry-construction and service sectors are always increasing. In 2009, each of these sectors accounts for around 40% of the total GDP of Vietnam. The manufacturing sector alone accounts for more than 20% for 2005-2010 period. The expansion of industry-construction sector reflects high speed of industrialisation and urbanisation and this has substantial impacts putting challenges for low carbon development path of the country.
In 2009, Vietnam GDP in current price was USD 96.317 billion (ASEAN Secretariat, 2010) which was just about 36% of that of Thailand and 60% of the Philippines in the same year. In 2010, GDP of Vietnam reached USD 101 billion and is expected to grow at 7.5-8% during the period of 2011-2015 as indicated in the 5-year Socio-economic Development Plan (MPI, 2010). The size of Vietnam economy in 2020 would be more than double that of 2010 and once again double in the next subsequent ten years (2030). The similar increase is expected for GDP per capita indicator. Different sectors may grow at different paces and this has different implications for CO2 emissions of the whole economy. These can also be considered as ―business as usual‖ scenarios for the Vietnamese economy.
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Climate conditions have changed in recent decades in Vietnam. Over the past 50 years (1958 - 2007), average temperature has increased about 0.5 - 0.7°C (NTP, MONRE, 2008). Climate change has made natural disasters, especially typhoons, floods, and droughts more severe. On average for the whole country, the rainfall over the past 50 years (1958 - 2007) decreased by about 2%. There have been more typhoons with higher intensity affecting Viet Nam. Typhoon track has a tendency of moving southward and typhoon season tends to end later. There were more typhoons with abnormal movement. Data from tidal gauges along Vietnam coasts show that sea level rise was at the rate of about 3mm/year during the period of 1993 - 2008 which is comparable with the global tendency. In the past 50 years, sea level at Hon Dau station rose about 20cm (NTP, MONRE, 2008). The climate change scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050 were developed by MONRE based on: (i) Plausibility of global climate change scenarios; (ii) Level of details of climate change scenarios; (iii) Inheritability; (iv) Up-to-date; (v) Local appropriateness; (vi) Completeness of scenarios; and (vii) Possibility of self updating. In medium emission scenario: By the first year (2020, 2030) and between 2050 of the 21st century, annual mean temperatures in Northern climate zones would increase by 0.5 to 1.5°C relative to the baseline period (1980 -1999). The increase in temperatures in Southern climate zones is expected to be less than that of Northern climate zones and is about 0.3 to 1.0°C. By the end of the 21st century, annual mean temperatures would increase about 2.6°C in the North West, 2.5°C in the East West, 2.4°C in the North Delta, 2.8°C in the North Central, 1.9°C in the South Central, 1.6°C in the Central Highlands, and 2.0°C in the South compared to the average of 1980 - 1999. In terms of rainfall and with medium emission scenario: By the first years of 2020 and 2030 and by 2050 of the 21st century, annual mean rainfall in Northern climate zones would increase by 1.4% to 4.1% and about 0.3%-1.7% in Southern climate zones (South Central, Central Highlands and South zones) relative to the baseline period (1980 -1999). The sea level rise by medium scenario for Vietnam is projected at about 30 cm by 2050 and 75 cm by 2100.
The future scenarios of energy consumption coming along with future demand for energy can be seen in the forthcoming National Energy Policy (MOIT, 2011). In this draft policy, the energy demands for major sectors are estimated. In the next 20 years or beyond, energy demand is getting large with substantial changes. For industrial sector, the demand by 2010 is about 13.4 – 14.0 million TOE, by 2020 approximately 25.4 – 28.0 million TOE and by 2050: 110 - 131 mill. TOE (average growth rate of period 2001 - 2020 is 9.2 – 9.7%/year, 2021 - 2050: 5 – 5.3%/year). The transportation sector energy demand is also increasing fast. By the year 2010, it is estimated to be approximately 11.3 - 12 mills. of TOE; by the year of 2020 about 21.5 - 24 mill. of TOE and by the 2050 about 55 - 72 Mill. of TOE. The demand for energy consumption of service sector by the
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year of 2010 is about 2.2 Mill. TOE, in 2020 approximately 3.7 – 4.3 Mil. TOE, in 2050 about 16 - 21 Mill. of TOE. The figures for agricultural sector are forecasted at about 1 Mill. TOE in 2010, about 1.4 – 1.5 Mil.TOE in 2020 and 3.4 – 3.8 Mil. TOE in 2050. Vietnam would turn to be an energy imported country in the near future based on the information from (MOIT, 2011). This is expected to happen from 2013 and the proportion of energy import would reach 25 - 27% in 2020, and about 57 - 62% by 2050 if nuclear power is not taken into account.
Specifically, electricity demand (baseline scenario) is increased at a rate of 14.0%/year for period 2011-2015 and 11.1%/year for 2016-2020 according to Proposed Master Plan on electricity development for period 2011-2020, with its vision up to 2030. The power production is proposed to be 194 billion kWh in 2015, 329 billion kWh in 2020 with the maximum capacity in 2015 of 30,803MW and 2020 of 52,040MW. Up to 2030, power production is estimated at 695 billion kWh with its maximum capacity of 110,215MW. Nuclear power is planned to develop in the next decades with the first Nuclear Power Plant proposed to be run in 2020. Hydro-power would reduce its proportion to 25.7% in 2020 and 15.3% in 2030; oil & gas thermal power would be 19.4% in 2020 and remain 12.7% in 2030; while coal thermal power would increase its ratio up to 46.4% and 56.1% in 2020 and in 2030 respectively. Renewable energy would have its ratio of 4.5% in 2020 and 5% in 2025, due to its potential have been not clarified, especially its wind power has little change in renewable sources structure. After 2025, its proportion is coming down to 3.5%-4%. Nuclear power will be increased, comprising 6.1% in 2025 and 7.8% in 2030 while other energy imported would comprise 2.6% and 4.6% respectively to the year 2020 and 2030.
From the literature review of previous and on-going studies, it can be seen that although the number of studies on low carbon development and climate change impact is large, they analysed only specific aspects of low carbon and climate change impact such as potential for Vietnam to participate in the CDM, benefits on climate change adaptation from small and medium scale hydropower plants, promotion of renewable energy, energy efficiency, rural energy, forest sector development, priority infrastructure investment, demand-side management and energy efficiency, biodiversity etc... It is therefore that a comprehensive study on patterns of economic growth that will be climate resilient and low carbon for the whole economy is still lacking. There has not been any study investigating both adaptation and mitigation processes and inter-sectoral impacts during these to processes for Vietnam. In addition, the data serving for low carbon and climate resilient studies seem to be somehow out-of-date with the latest information came from 2000. Methodologically, there has not been any study combining both top-down and bottom-up approaches in a very comprehensive manner. This proposed study would be a very good evidence-based research providing policy makers with various options of lowering carbon
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intensity and adapting with climate changes and their impacts on the economy while keeping economic growth in the long term.
Appraisal of the scope and methodology proposed for the Study and selection of relevant models for Vietnam
This is one of the major tasks of the scoping study. Low carbon development planning in Vietnam will require a consensus to be reached involving all Ministries and multiple other stakeholders on an achievable long term development trajectory that will allow the country to maintain its growth targets while emitting less greenhouse gases to the atmosphere than could have been expected under previous development plans. Low carbon development planning requires that priorities be determined across sectors; deciding where investments should be made to reduce the future emission of GHGs, and the time frame in which each should best be made. This involves trade- offs and agreements across the entire economy.
Scenario modelling and sharing of data is an important part of this process. Modelling helps understand where a country and each sector – energy, transport, land use, agriculture, forestry and waste management – currently stand, the direction in which they are developing, the impact of this development on the level of GHG emissions, and resources that would be needed for abatement. Scenario modelling typically involves establishing a macroeconomic outlook. This entails forecasting population, GDP, and other macro-economic variables for
inputs. Unlike many standard models, energy plays a key role as an input and is modelled as a complement to capital in the short-run but a substitute to capital in the long run. This reflects the putty/clay specification of production that incorporates vintage capital. The key assumption is that there is greater substitution across inputs in the long run (i.e. with new capital) than in the short run (with old or installed) capital. One consequence of this specification is that countries that have higher growth and higher rates of investment typically have a more flexible economy in the aggregate.
There is a single representative household that consumes goods and services and saves. The savings rate is partially a function of the demographic structure of the region. Savings rise as either the elderly or youth dependency ratios fall. The government sector is relatively passive. Aggregate expenditures are fixed as a share of total GDP and revenues adjust to maintain fiscal balance (through a lump sum tax on households). Investment is savings driven. Aggregate demand by sector is summed across all domestic agents and represents a composite of domestically produced goods and imports—the so-called Armington aggregate. The aggregate Armington good is allocated between domestic production and imports using a two-nested CES specification. The first nest allocates aggregate demand between domestic production and an aggregate import bundle. The second nest decomposes aggregate imports into import by region of origin. This generates a bilateral trade flow matrix. Domestic producers are assumed to supply both domestic and export markets without friction, i.e. the law of one price holds for domestically produced goods irrespective of their final destination. Bilateral trade is associated with three price wedges. The first wedge reflects differences between producer prices and the border (FOB) price, i.e. an export tax or subsidy. The second wedge reflects international trade and transport margins, i.e. the difference between FOB and CIF prices. The third wedge reflects the difference between the CIF price and the end-user price, i.e. import tariffs. All three wedges are fully bilateral.
Model closure is consistent with long-term equilibrium. As stated above, fiscal balance is maintained through lump sum taxes on households under the assumption of fixed public expenditures (relative to GDP). Changes in revenues, for example carbon tax revenues, imply a net decrease in household direct taxes. Investment is savings driven. This assumption implies that changes in investment are likely to be relatively minor since public and foreign savings are fixed and household savings will be relatively stable relative to income. The third closure rule is that the capital account is balanced. Ex ante changes in the trade balance are therefore offset through real exchange rate effects. A positive rise in net transfers, for example through a cap and trade scheme, would tend to lead to a real exchange rate appreciation.
Study into the Economics of Low Carbon, Climate-Resilient Development in Vietnam – Scoping Phase
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